WASHINGTON
It's like the old visual cliche for the passage of time in movies--calendar pages dropping more and more rapidly until none are left.
This time, it's the countdown to switch off analog television broadcasting and the calendar pages end after Feb. 17, 2009. By best count, that's only a matter of 97 weeks from now.
The Association for Maximum Service Television has even gone so far as to place a rather ominous digital clock at the top of its Web site (www.mstv.org)--ticking away the days, hours, minutes and seconds before America's septuagenarian analog television broadcasting system has to be euthanized.
There has been no small amount of discussion and conjecture that there may be some problems ahead in trying to meet that deadline.
Taking a television station digital involves a lot, but on the transmission side of things, it really boils down to delivery and installation of three big (both price tag and size) items: Antennas, transmitters and, where needed, towers. None of these are really off-the-shelf items.
On March 12, MSTV featured a Webcast examining the state of digital transition readiness. The Webcast featured Andrew Long, associate chief of the FCC's Media Bureau; John Lawson, president and CEO of the Association of Public Television Stations; Marcellus Alexander, executive vice president of television at the National Association of Broadcasters and MSTV President David Donovan.
Numbers and facts presented were staggering, and in some cases less than encouraging--upwards of 600 transmitters needed, perhaps 400 antennas, 650 mask filters, maybe 750 digital exciters--a long shopping list.
However, Donovan is quick to caution that the figures used in the Webcast were based on a fairly small industry sampling and may not entirely reflect the health of the digital transition.
NOT SURE HOW MANY
"I really want to make it clear that these numbers are an extrapolation based on a very small survey," he said. "It's incorrect to just look at these numbers and conclude from them that the industry will not reach the deadline. There needs to be a further investigation and if it shows that these numbers are representative, then there needs to be cause for concern."
Donovan used as an example a station that had put a digital signal on the air with a new side-mounted antenna and an analog antenna on top of the tower.
"If the side-mount unit is located high enough to provide good service, then the station is ready for the transition," he said. "At some point in the future, they may want to take down the analog top-mounted antenna and replace it. However, they will be providing a good quality signal to their entire service area by the deadline.
"You may also have the reverse where someone will have to move the antenna to the top to meet the requirement by 2009. We need to find out how many of these situations exist."
Donovan stressed that the key point here is that stations have to get going in planning whatever modifications will be necessary for the transition, and they must order equipment as soon as possible.
"If they don't, they may face very long lines if they wait to order the equipment in 2008," Donovan said.
MANUFACTURERS AGREE
Richard Schwartz, vice president of marketing and management at Axcera in Lawrence, Pa., is not so sure that Donovan's equipment figures need to be refined, at least for transmitters.
"Our numbers are very similar," Schwartz said. "Just look at the number of digital stations that are licensed right now. If you assume that there are 1,100 stations on the air today with full power, then there are 500 to 600 coming. Maybe some of these are on the air with low power, but there are a lot that will need equipment. Honestly, we think a few will not make the transition and just go dark."
Schwartz felt that as a whole, manufacturers could keep up with demand for new transmitters as long as orders are placed with sufficient lead time.
"We're the number three provider of digital transmitters in the U.S.," Schwartz said. "As a transmitter manufacturer we don't foresee any problems in supplying our portion of the system."
Jay Adrick, vice president of broadcast technology at Harris, supplied numbers that are in good agreement with those from MSTV.
"We have 306 stations currently broadcasting in UHF that have elected or have been assigned to move back to VHF assignments," Adrick said. "These stations will need a digital VHF transmitter."
Adrick said that by his company's count, 222 stations are transmitting DTV on an interim UHF or VHF assignment (many of these are out-of-core). With the transition, these will move to a permanent in-core assignment.
"In almost every case, this is not an issue of the transmitter having to be replaced, but rather components such as mask filters and/or combiners having to be replaced," Adrick said. "These transmitters will live on."
Adrick said that it will be possible to convert some of his company's newer VHF transmitters from analog to digital operation, but this is not a simple overnight operation. He suggested that there is another option that could speed up matters.
"Already, some customers are asking about having us cut their transmitters in half--go to reduced power analog operation, and convert the remaining half to digital," Adrick said. "On transition night, you'd just make a patch. Post transition, the remaining half could be converted to digital operation for redundancy."
Brett Jenkins, the U.S. video transmission product line manager for Grass Valley is very positive about any rush to purchase new Thomson-branded transmitters.
"It's music to my ears," he said. "I expect all manufacturers including Grass Valley Thomson will be ready. We would be happy to crank out 600 transmitters between now and the transition. All manufacturers have been ramping up for this situation."
Jenkins said that lately he has noticed a slight increase in the level of concern from some customers about securing digital gear.
"Some of the more progressive broadcasters are really beginning to talk with us about equipment, but at this point this is the exception, not the norm," Jenkins said. "We would really prefer to see advance discussions starting to make sure that no one is left behind."
Jenkins observed that some good had come out of the previous missed DTV transition deadlines.
"These have helped manufacturers see problems and make corrections to meet the demand that will come," he said.
When asked about the impact of the telcoms' push to get mobile TV systems operational, Jenkins said that this could be a factor in delivering digital equipment for broadcasters.
"It all depends on timing--with enough advance notice, manufacturers are pretty good at figuring things like this out."
Eddy Vanderkerken, director of sales and marketing of broadcast products at Rohde & Schwarz said that his company has not seen any rise in interest or sales since the MSTV Webcast.
"There are no quick spikes in the transmitter business--everything goes pretty slow," Vanderkerken said. "People have to plan, they have to prepare a budget, have to get quotes--this process usually takes some amount of time."
Vanderkerken said the U.S. television market had been slowing down in recent years, but expected that things will pick up as the transition date gets closer. There has been some amount of interest by some customers in converting from analog to digital.
ANTENNAS?
Despite the large estimated number of antennas that will have to be in place and operational, Bill Harland, director of marketing at Electronics Research Inc. (ERI) in Chandler, Ind., feels confident that the 2009 date is still realistic.
"With a double shift, we can produce 10 or 12 full-power top-mounted antennas per month," Harland said. "We also have crews that can handle installations."
Harland says that ERI is also up to speed on producing the necessary mask filters required for digital transmission, but stressed that early planning and placement of orders would be absolutely necessary to make sure there are enough to go around.
"I feel that as long as the industry cooperates and planning starts in time there will be no surprises," he said. "I don't think that the commission will back off on the date."
Harland was asked if ERI had seen any upswing in orders since the MSTV Webcast.
"There's not really been a rise in business," he said. "But we have seen an increase in the sort of activity that turns into business. The level of interest has probably risen by about a third since the Webcast."
According to estimates from Tim Wells, director of marketing at Dielectric in Raymond, Maine, there are at least 400 stations that will need new transmitting antennas to make the deadline.
Wells too is confident that manufacturers will be able to meet the anticipated demand for equipment.
"We think that if it starts soon--next 35 to 40 days--everything will be fine," Wells said. "We're not that confident if it doesn't start soon."
Wells said that manufacturing capacity could be an issue.
"The whole industry has taken capacity out in the last year--we can't sustain the same staffing levels considering the size of the market," he said.
Some concern has been expressed over the ability to get new gear installed even if it is available and delivered on time. He noted that typical installation time for a new transmitter and filter is about four weeks.
"The service industry may be hard pressed to keep up with demand," Wells said.
Coming up in Part II: A look at what local broadcasters are saying.
