CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has issued new forecasts for the local broadcast TV industry in 2024 that predict the sector will generate $23.8 billion in advertising revenue, with $21.7 billion in over-the-air (OTA) revenue and $2.1 billion in digital television.
The $23.8 billion estimate would be an 11% increase over 2023 for the television industry.
Previewing the new forecast in an address at the TVB Forward Conference, Tom Buono, founder and chief executive officer of BIA, explained the drivers behind the forecast include heavy political advertising spending along with increased spending in key television verticals, including legal and auto.
Buono also examined local televisions’ share of the complete advertising wallet.
“We all expect a large number for local television ad spending in 2024, but it’s not only political that the industry can look to for growth,” said Buono. “Our new Share of Wallet (SoW) Performance Benchmarking Analysis reveals legal and automobile advertising will be up next year, too, providing solid opportunities for the industry. Beyond spending, we can see from this analysis how well television is performing across business verticals as compared to other media and in relation to the many advertising spend opportunities within a local market. Looking at ad spend this way is key to helping television continue to play to its strengths and find ways to take share from other media and move against threats.”
For automobile advertising, BIA’s 2024 forecast shows that TV OTA is expected to increase to $192.6 million in 2024, which will be the largest year-to-year increase since 2019. Another strong vertical for television in BIA’s SoW Performance Benchmarking analysis is legal services. BIA estimates legal spending will total $8.6 billion in 2024. When looking at ad share across all traditional media, TV OTA will be the only channel to grow for legal advertising in 2024.
Buono also examined ad spend in the connected TV and over-the-top (CTV/OTT) category compared to OTA and digital. While smaller in dollars spent, CTV/OTT is the fastest growing platform in the past five years, with +30.4% CAGR (2020 to 2024). However, TV OTA has more than four times the ad spend, mainly driven by political, than the other two channels, he reported.
“After a few challenging years related to the pandemic, followed by supply chain and economic issues, we are forecasting significant increases in 2024 for local TV advertising,” said Buono. “Continuous examination and foresight will be key to maintaining a strong position.”
BIA also announced that to help television executives stay on top in a changing advertising marketplace, BIA is ready to perform a Share of Wallet (Sow): Performance Benchmarking Analysis that is customized to a broadcast group. More information is available at customservice@bia.com.
