International expansion by U.S. streaming companies and improvements in controlling password-sharing will drive growth for online streaming subscriptions to 2 billion worldwide by 2029, according to Ampere Analysis. The researcher—which predicts streaming subscriptions will soon become the largest contributing segment to the global TV economy—estimates subscription streamers will generate almost $170 billion annually by then.
Ampere currently counts 1.8 billion subscriptions globally, which it said will increase to 2 billion within five years. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see the largest increase in paid subscriptions, surpassing the increasingly saturated U.S. market.
The largest increase in paid subscriptions ever came in 2020, when pandemic-inspired stay-at-home orders resulted in 282 million signups, driving the total to more than 1 billion for the first time, Ampere said. Growth is expected to be slower over the next five years, though.
“Streamers will have to work hard to reengage growth in less-saturated markets, investing in marketing and locally relevant content, if they are to beat the 2 billion figure earlier than 2029,” the researcher said.
Subscription-streaming revenues are expected to grow almost three times faster than subscribers, with Ampere expecting growth to exceed 30% by 2029 as services focus on profitability and per-subscriber monetization. Netflix has led several initiatives to solidify long-term revenue growth in saturated streaming markets, the researcher noted, creating an ad revenue stream and tackling password-sharing, while Disney+ and Max have taken the bold strategy of bundling. By 2029, Ampere expects Netflix to have the largest share of paid subscriptions, growing from 14.4% to 29%.
Ampere predicts the ad-supported streaming segment will generate an additional $22 billion from sales as traditionally ad-free streaming services pivot to ad tiers. By 2029, Ampere expects the combined annual revenue of the global subscription streaming market (including ad tiers) will exceed $190 billion.
“The global streaming market is poised to generate $190 billion annually from two billion paid subscriptions by 2029,” Ampere Research Manager Maria Dunleavey said. “Key strategic developments, like Netflix’s account-sharing crackdown and cheaper ad-tier offer, and rivals Disney+ and Max’s aggressive approach to bundling, are driving revenue growth in saturated streaming markets. Targeting the untapped Asia-Pacific region is the most promising strategy for subscriber growth. To surpass current subscriber expectations, streamers must double down on strategic investments in less saturated markets. India was Netflix’s second-largest subscriber growth market in 2024, and the company has barely scratched the surface there in terms of growth potential.”
