NEW YORK—While reaction to Apple’s new AR/VR headset, Apple Vision Pro, has been decidedly mixed, with some commentators comparing Vision Pro's prospects to the failure of the 3D TV set category, a new S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis offers a more positive take.
“Apple is bound to revitalize the AR/VR market, but it may take some time to find the right price-to-feature ratio that will catalyze mass-market adoption,” according to a blog post by Neil Barbour at S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.
S&P is predicting that the high price of the Apple Vision Pro, which is set to sell for $3,499 when it launches early next year, will limit sales to under 500,000 in the first year but demand should increase as prices come down.
Barbour also argues that “we believe that Apple's real goal is selling smart glasses, not headsets. No matter how sexy and slim Apple can make a headset, that headset will still likely occlude eyesight, put extra weight on the skull or mess with people's hair. The mass market is already used to the look and feel of sunglasses and eyeglasses, making the form factor much more palatable.”
The S&P analysis also estimates that the global installed base of AR/VR headsets in 2022 was about 34.7 million, up from 20.6 million in 2020, but barely above the 34.4 million headsets being used in 2018.
“Apple's announcement was the clearest articulation yet of the idea that AR and VR are not just for gaming or niche commercial settings but can be used in daily life as one would use a laptop or a phone,” he wrote, adding later in the post that Meta is planning to bring some of the innovations featured in Vision Pro to its next generation of the Quest headset.
The full analysis is available here.
