According to GroupM’s year-end worldwide forecast, ad spending for TV in the U.S. is expected to fall 5.1% to $52.3 billion in 2024, excluding political ad spending, which is expected to reach a record $15.9 billion.
Ad spending on traditional TV in 2024 is expected to drop 10.7% to $45.7 billion. CTV, in comparison, is expected to see ad spending rise 14.8% to $16.6 billion, comprising 26.6% of all TV ad spends.
Looking ahead five years in advance, GroupM estimates that total TV–traditional TV plus CTV—will decrease 2.7% to $57.6 billion by 2028—with traditional TV dropping to $36 billion or 62.5% of total TV advertising—while CTV will increase 9.2% to $21.6 billion for a 37.5% share.
Worldwide, the picture is more positive. At the close of 2023, GroupM says the global advertising spending will reach $889 billion (excluding U.S. political advertising), representing 5.8% annual growth. The growth is notable because of inflation, high interest rates, China's sluggish economy and lingering impacts from the pandemic, according to GroupM. While nominal growth will decelerate slightly in 2024, the five-year outlook remains strong, according to the company, with retail media and digital out of home poised for aggressive expansion.
Among the three biggest factors impacting ad spending growth worldwide, according to GroupM are the growth of DTC streaming, with studios now bypassing traditional TV outlets to offer their own content to consumers; the increased use of AI, both on content as well as ad placement; and live sports and events, where the increasing use of AI and algorithms is helping to create customized viewer experiences.
Worldwide, the U.S. and China are the two largest markets, with the U.K. beating out Japan for third place.
GroupM says the globalization of media and branding, coupled with advances in AI will help established brands the most.
“As recent years have shown, the increasingly global footprint of brands, media owners and supply chains has brought a kind of stability to the ad market, ensuring growth can always be found in more fertile regions—for those that can afford to pursue it,” the company said. “It's a model that favors the biggest players, who are poised to further consolidate their advantage by leveraging their data to forge one-on-one ties with consumers and leading the pack to full AI integration.
“But with global interdependence comes added vulnerability to geopolitical disruption, and the effects of ongoing conflict eventually reach players of every size,” it added. “Advertisers in this environment will be well-served by having proactive guidelines and the right partners to ensure budgets are allocated with the long-term health of the business in mind.”
