Time to dust off the turban, cue the pungi and climb out on a limb with my top 10 TV broadcast predictions for 2025.
I certainly claim to have no psychic skill. Rather, these predictions come from my reporting over the past year and observations made along the way.
One caveat: If my No. 1 prediction turns out poorly for broadcasters, all bets are off on at least six others. Time will tell. Enjoy.
My Predictions
1. It’s make or break time for ATSC 3.0. A court decision in the Constellation Designs-LG Electronics patent case is expected in 2025. A favorable decision for LG likely means the company’s re-entrance into the NextGen TV market. A decision for Constellation Designs could mean all NextGen TV makers pull the plug, and 3.0 becomes a footnote in the history of U.S. television.
2. Cord-cutting continues its march. MVPDs have lost considerable audience since the advent of streaming alternatives. Comparitech puts the annual subscriber decline at 6 million between 2019 and 2022. Since February 2023, Nielsen says, more than one-third of U.S. TV usage is based on streaming. This trend will continue in 2025 and beyond. A study by Digital TV Research projects fewer than 60 million pay-TV households in the U.S. and Canada by 2029.
3. The number of OTA households will inch higher as the benefits of hybrid over-the-air and over-the-top delivery come into focus. In February 2024, Nielsen pegged the number of U.S. TV households with at least one over-the-air set in use at 18%. With 70% of U.S TV homes owning one or more smart TVs—14 million of which include ATSC 3.0 tuners and more on the way—an increasing number of viewers are experiencing 3.0-based hybrid OTA-OTT features. One, NBCU’s Start Over, gives viewers a TV experience more akin to streaming with the ability to start a show over. Another is Broadcast-Enabled Streaming TV (BEST) (aka Broadcast IP). Some commercial TV viewers and public broadcast fans, too, are already enjoying access to a fuller menu of 3.0 channels in their markets thanks to the hybrid broadcast-streaming technology.
4. Testing of ATSC 3.0 and 5G Broadcast concurrently transmitted from the same transmitter. At least one transmitter vendor has told broadcasters it can be done. The proof, of course, will be in the tasting of the pudding, and that vendor will step into the kitchen to conduct a test.
5. The ATSC 1.0 logjam will break. The November election will change the makeup of the commission. The FCC will move forward with a workable plan to expedite the sunset of 1.0 and stomp down on the accelerator for 3.0. Broadcasters may find the solution bittersweet if it involves another spectrum auction.
6. ATSC 3.0-based Broadcast Positioning System gets a chance to prove itself. ATSC 3.0-based BPS offers the nation an affordable, resilient complement/backup to GPS for critical timing and positioning applications. The change of national leadership opens a path to BPS trials.
7. Broadcasters earn revenue from 3.0 datacasting. The efforts of Sinclair and OTA Wireless (the joint venture of Nexstar Media Group and E.W. Scripps) to create a new revenue stream based on datacasting begin to pay dividends. Other broadcasters take note and look for ways to cash in.
8. Public, private and on-prem clouds continue to transform broadcast and production infrastructure and workflows. From live production to playout, momentum will continue to grow for cloud-based workflows as broadcasters look for greater efficiency and savings.
9. Politicians consider shaking up their media strategies for 2026. Some politicians and consultants mulling over the results of the 2024 campaign will look to long-form podcasts to replicate the success of President-elect Donald Trump. Constrained by the equal time rule, broadcasters may decide they have to take a pass, or they may spin up new ad-hoc digital subchannels to make swallowing the equal-time pill a bit easier.
10. Internationally, ATSC 3.0 records more wins. The Brazilian government will adopt the recommendation of its SBTVD Forum for that nation’s TV 3.0 standard, choosing to incorporate major portions of ATSC 3.0, including the physical layer, into its broadcast future. The ATSC 3.0 standard will also see progress in India, Canada and Mexico.
